Global Oil Supply Set to Rise Further in 2026 Despite Geopolitical Tensions: IEA

by Ship & Bunker News Team
Monday January 26, 2026

Global oil supply is forecast to increase by 2.5 million b/d in 2026 to an average of 108.7 million b/d, with expanding non-OPEC+ production and higher OPEC+ output more than offsetting export losses linked to Iran, Venezuela and Kazakhstan.

Non-OPEC+ producers are expected to account for around 1.3 million b/d of the increase this year, after contributing 1.8 million b/d increase in 2025, IEA said in its January oil market report released on January 21.

This non-OPEC production growth will be led by the US, Canada, Brazil, Guyana and Argentina.

Saudi Arabia has also been a key contributor to rising OPEC+ output following the easing of earlier production cuts.

Global oil supply fell by 350,000 b/d month-on-month to 107.4 million b/d in December due to lower output from Kazakhstan and several Middle Eastern OPEC producers, although this was partly offset by a sharp rebound in Russian production.

Disruptions linked to geopolitical tensions have intensified, with Iranian exports dropping to around 1.6 million b/d in November and December and Venezuelan shipments falling sharply in early January after US action against sanctioned tankers.

Kazakh exports have also been curtailed by attacks on Black Sea and Caspian export infrastructure.

Despite these setbacks, the scale of global supply growth and large inventory builds over the past year mean the market remains well cushioned against short-term losses, keeping downward pressure on crude prices.

Ship & Bunker News Team
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