World News
New Oil Forecast Implies Global VLSFO to Average Over $700/Mt in Q2
The first major oil forecasts since the start of the current Middle East conflict are now starting to emerge, implying bunker prices later this year much higher than had previously been expected.
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook on Tuesday, forecasting Brent crude at an average price of $79.62/bl in Q1, $90.56/bl in Q2 and $78.84/bl in 2026 as a whole.
These figures are up from $64.44/bl, $57.32/bl and $57.69/bl, respectively, in the report released a month earlier. ICE Brent futures traded at $99.51/bl as of 4:27 PM in London on Thursday.
The forecast implies Ship & Bunker's G20-VLSFO Index of prices at 20 leading bunkering locations may average around $708/mt in Q2, and $617/mt for 2026 as a whole, based on this index's average spread to the Brent price over the past 12 months. This compares to an average price of $537/mt seen so far this year.
The G20-HSFO Index is implied to average at $611/mt in Q2 and $532/mt in 2026 as a whole, compared to a year-to-date average of $465/mt. For the G20-MGO Index the Q2 average is implied at $1,027/mt and 2026 at $894/mt, compared to the year-to-date average of $801/mt.
Ship & Bunker now publishes bunker price forecasts for every port and index it covers, based on the Brent forecasts from the monthly EIA report. The forecasts are published alongside the daily bunker prices for each port.
It should be noted that the forecasts are based on the average price relationship between the fuel concerned and Brent over the previous 12 months. Because of that, and because most fuel grades have moved into a highly abnormal premium to Brent over the past two weeks, any rapid change in the situation in the Middle East will heavily affect their accuracy.
For its part, the EIA has based its latest forecasts on the assumption that the problem of shut-in crude production blocked from exit via the Strait of Hormuz will peak in early April before gradually easing from then on.
Key Bunker Prices More
| VLSFO | MGO | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $/mt | +/- | $/mt | +/- | |
| Singapore | 1049.00 | 1.50 | 1679.50 | 83.50 |
| Rotterdam | 748.00 | 22.00 | 1127.50 | 59.50 |
| Houston | 685.00 | 33.50 | 1077.00 | 38.00 |
| Fujairah | 1018.00 | 100.00 | 1433.50 | 83.00 |
| Global 20 Ports Average | 960.00 | 53.00 | 1379.00 | 94.00 |
| Global 4 Ports Average | 875.00 | 22.00 | 1329.50 | 47.00 |
| Global Average Bunker Price | 920.50 | 59.00 | 1315.00 | 60.00 |
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