The Mediterranean market in particular has seen a healthy first half of the month. Image Credit: Spotbarge

Bunker hubs away from the Middle East are seeing a significant jump in bunker sales this month as the shipping and oil industries adjust to the continuing conflict in and around Iran.

Analytics firm Spotbarge, which determines bunker demand level from AIS tracking of bunker barges and other sources, has observed a jump in deliveries at a range of hubs around the world, with the Mediterranean and Northwest Europe appearing to be key early beneficiaries from the supply disruption.

Local bunkering sources speaking to Ship & Bunker this week have confirmed the rise in activity at a range of hubs.

"The Mediterranean was really bad in January and February, due to the storms," Sebastiaan Kosman, founder of Spotbarge, told Ship & Bunker.

"But now it's going back to the previous numbers, and if the trend continues it could see an increase of 500 bunker operations."

The Mediterranean saw a total of 1,400 bunker operations from March 1-16, compared to about 2,200 in January and February and a previous monthly average of 3,000, according to Spotbarge data.

"Levels in Malta have picked up, but we still have supply issues because of the damage sustained by Evos during Storm Harry," a Malta-based supplier said.

A trader based in Spain agreed the Mediterranean as a whole was seeing rising sales.

"Since the Iran strikes at the end of February, there's been a clear shift," the trader said.

"With disruption in the Gulf, especially Fujairah bunkering, demand has been moving toward alternative hubs like the Mediterranean and Northwest Europe."

At the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp hub in Northwest Europe, there have been 1,730 operations observed so far this month, compared to 2,976 in February and a monthly average of 3,100-3,200, according to Spotbarge.

"We have seen increased bunker demand, number of requirements, volumes in ARA since the beginning of the war," a Rotterdam-based supplier said.

"This is of course due to limited offers and product availabilities in Asia and the Middle East."

Panama is also seeing gains, with 340 operations from March 1-16, compared to 613 in February and a monthly average of 620.

A local supplier told Ship & Bunker this gain was mostly seen in the first week of March, with a quieter period since then.

"The first week of the war we saw a significant spike in demand," the Panamanian supplier said.

"It seemed like panic purchasing to secure the volumes and fill up tanks, given the uncertainty.

"We had a day where we saw double up on inquiries compared to the regular numbers.

"Since then it has come down again, and we're seeing a pretty average number of inquiries and volume now."

As Ship & Bunker reported previously, Singapore saw a dip in sales in the first week of March, but Spotbarge now sees an increase in activity there. The world's largest bunkering hub has had 4,050 operations so far this month, compared to 7,140 in February and a monthly average of 7,200-7,300.

"There is an urgency to buy, since Brent is quite bullish recently," a local trader said.

"LSMGO is tight, and both VLSFO and HSFO still look ok for now."

Finally Sri Lanka, which typically competes for business with Fujairah to some extent, saw a total of 144 operations from March 1-16, compared to 201 in February and a monthly average of 215.

"Compared to February, sales are up for every supplier along with the demand due to the situation in the Middle East," a source in Sri Lanka said.

"There's a significant increase for all products: VLSFO, MGO and HSFO.

"Several suppliers are tight with their stocks, along with ourselves.

"We have sold our stocks and are currently waiting for our next parcels, hopefully by next week."

Spotbarge has limited visibility over what's happening in the Fujairah market, because any bunkering currently happening there is likely to be done with AIS transponders shut off to avoid inviting drone attacks. But with several attacks there over the past two weeks, bunkering activity is likely to have declined to a minimal level, and some of this demand will have shifted to other hubs.

"It's 600,000 mt/month from Fujairah, and it has to move somewhere," Kosman said.

"I think some of these volumes are being moved to these regions."