• 4.9% average advance in Q1 2026 vs Q1 2025
• Asian markets see strongest gains from Middle East conflict
• Tanker strength has been biggest factor boosting demand
• Read the full report here: shipandbunker.com/bi/bunker-volumes

Demand at key marine fuel hubs jumped on a yearly basis in the first quarter of 2026 as the first signs were seen of the Middle East conflict reshaping tradeflows, according to the latest market survey of bunker sales volumes in 17 leading global locations.

As in previous quarters, Ship & Bunker and consultancy 2050 Marine Energy surveyed bunker market participants around the world alongside official data where available and found an average rise of 4.9% in volumes in the first quarter from the same period of 2025. The year-on-year advance compares with a 3.1% year-on-year decline in Q4. Q1 volumes sequentially were 0.1% lower than in Q4.

Global sales had hit the highest level since 2019 last year, and 2026's volumes show a significant chance of beating that level, based on their performance at the start of the year.

The survey covers about 59.7% of the global demand total of 245.1 million mt for 2024 shown by official IMO data.

"Much like bunker suppliers' financial performance in Q1 was saved by price hikes due to the commencement of the war against Iran and the closing of the Strait of Hormuz, so were global bunker volumes as panicked March bunker demand was naturally very heavy," Adrian Tolson, founder of 2050 Marine Energy, told Ship & Bunker.

"Oddly enough, the major ports of Singapore and the ARA ports didn’t see as much of a surge in demand; instead the real demand increases were seen in the second-tier ports, with the obvious exception of Fujairah, as ship owners looked to buy fuel in any location before prices rose.

"This was particularly evident are the increases in demand in smaller Asian ports and supply regions, such as Korea, Japan, West Africa and the Canary Islands."

Early Middle East Stress

March was the first month of the recent Middle East conflict, and saw the sharpest impact on the bunker market.

Ship & Bunker's G20-VLSFO Index of prices at 20 leading bunkering locations reached a peak of $1,053/mt on March 19, up by 93.7% from its level on February 27 before the war started, and has largely declined from this level since then.

The market was surging on the concern that an extended closure of the Strait of Hormuz would lead inevitably to fuel shortages at ports around the world. But some in the market were arguing that these price moves were unjustified.

In an interview in late March, former IBIA Chairman Constantinos Capetanakis warned of the potential for price reaction to the Middle Eastern situation to be overdone as a means of the industry increasing its profits.

"It's much more expensive - we're talking about serious profiteering here - but there is no supply tightness in the sense that one cannot get it if you have the money to buy it," Capetanakis told Ship & Bunker.

"The herd mentality has taken centre stage."

RED III

In Northwest Europe, the market has had yet another new GHG-related regulation to contend with.

The Netherlands has been among the first out of the gate to bring the EU's RED III regulation into its domestic law this year, and has chosen as part of its targets to impose a renewable energy requirement onto fuel sales to the shipping industry at its ports.

For marine fuel suppliers in the Netherlands, the practical effect means sellers of conventional marine fuels need to declare a certain quantity of ZRE tickets either through the sale of biofuels or procuring them from others, in order to bring themselves into compliance with the directive's decarbonisation goals.

This has caused conventional bunker prices at Rotterdam to jump relative to Antwerp, and drove a significant decline in bunker sales at Rotterdam and Amsterdam in the first quarter while Antwerp's sales gained.

Similar market situations may develop at other EU bunkering locations if member states continue to implement RED III in different ways, Ben Salt, senior commercial analyst at Peninsula, told Ship & Bunker in May.

"I don’t know whether every country will enact a maritime-specific target, but I think you will have more than just the Netherlands,” he said.

“We could easily see a situation where neighbouring countries implement RED III concurrently, but with different scopes - for example, one applying it to oceangoing vessels and another to domestic shipping. These are the kinds of divergences likely to emerge in the coming years.”

Cloudy Outlook for Rest of 2026

While for now the bunker industry is still benefiting from increased margins driven by the Middle East's effect on supply, it remains highly uncertain to what extent this effect will last.

A volatile security situation in the Strait of Hormuz could keep supply unreliable for the rest of the year, or alternatively a more lasting US-Iran agreement could result in a flood of oil hitting the market.

It should be remembered that prior to the start of the war, the market's main concern was oversupply, as well as narrow margins worn down by high levels of competition from smaller trading firms. A major concern for the market will be whether these conditions rapidly reemerge as the Middle East situation stabilises.

"The bunker supply and demand picture will continue to be inconsistent and confused for most of 2026 as we see continued disruption to traditional shipping routes, not to mention bunker resupply routes," Tolson said.

Methodology

As with the previous surveys the areas covered by the survey are Singapore, the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) hub, Fujairah, the US Gulf, South Korea, Russia, the Gibraltar Strait, Hong Kong, Panama, Zhoushan, Japan, New York, West Africa, South Africa, the Canary Islands, Los Angeles/Long Beach and Turkey. Data is sourced from a combination of market participants and official records.

The full breakdown of the survey results, including sales volumes in each bunkering region for Q1 2026 and 2025 is available by clicking here.