World News
Post Christmas Trading Contributes To Worst Annual Showing For Oil In Five Years
True to form, oil prices on Friday dropped over 2 percent based on the issue that has weighed on the commodity for the latter half of 2025: the conviction that the world will be awash with surplus oil in 2026.
Trading was also influenced by ongoing hopes of a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine.
Brent settled down $1.60, or 2.5 percent, to $60.64 per barrel, and West Texas Intermediate settled down $1.61, or 2.7 percent, to $56.74.
The damage glut worries have done (enflamed by the International Energy Agency, which thinks supply will exceed demand by 3.8 million barrels per day in 2026) is substantial: Brent and WTI have declined 19 percent and 21 percent respectively for 2025, the steepest annual drop since the Covid lockdowns gutted demand.
Aegis Hedging analysts added in a note on Friday, "Geopolitical premiums have provided near-term price support, but have not materially shifted the underlying oversupply narrative."
As for the Russia/Ukraine peace talks, the perception is they are coming to some form of resolution, with the main stumbling block of territorial issues scheduled to be discussed between Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy and U.S. president Donald Trump on Sunday in Florida.
Earlier on Friday, oil was bolstered by a partial U.S. blockade of crude shipments from Venezuela and a military strike by Washington against a militant Islamist group in Nigeria; however, it's uncertain what impact the White House ordering a focus for the next two months on quarantining Venezuelan oil (instead of a military strike) will have ontrading in the weeks to come.
As for trading in the days leading up to the New Year, Kirill Bakhtin, senior oil and gas analyst at BCS Financial Group, said, "Oil prices have been receiving support from strong U.S. macro data and geopolitical instability over the past week.
"As no new U.S. stats are scheduled in the coming days, we expect a slight decline in prices going forward unless politics continues to weigh in."
Key Bunker Prices More
| VLSFO | MGO | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $/mt | +/- | $/mt | +/- | |
| Singapore | 435.50 | 1.00 | 604.50 | 10.00 |
| Rotterdam | 401.00 | 2.00 | 602.50 | 3.00 |
| Houston | 415.50 | 5.00 | 594.50 | 10.00 |
| Fujairah | 430.50 | 0.50 | 718.00 | 0.00 |
| Global 20 Ports Average | 462.00 | 1.00 | 712.50 | 2.50 |
| Global 4 Ports Average | 420.50 | 1.00 | 630.00 | 5.50 |
| Global Average Bunker Price | 513.50 | 0.50 | 761.00 | 1.00 |
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