80% of Cruise Ships to Use LNG Propulsion by 2025?

Paolo Moretti  says LNG "is not possible with the old fleet"

80 percent of cruise ships will be powered by liquefied natural gas (LNG) by 2025; this was the opinion of one cruise line CEO who was speaking at the recent Seatrade Cruise Global convention in Florida, and one that sparked much debate.

While low oil prices have cooled interest in LNG bunkers for many maritime sectors, the cruise segment is one area where adoption of the alternative bunkers is being taken seriously. 

Carnival's multi-billion dollar backing for LNG-powered vessels last June is a case in point, and a decision Carnival's Roger Frizzell told Ship & Bunker was "the right move."

But is 80 percent realistic?

Paolo Moretti, General Manager for RINA Services' Business Line Marine is one voice who thinks this might be an over-enthusiastic estimate - with a caveat.

"If we are talking about newbuildings, this is possible. But it is not possible with the old fleet, which cannot easily be retrofitted to use LNG," said Moretti.

While skeptics have noted there are still many barriers to the widespread adoption of LNG bunkers, such as required infrastructure, progress is undoubtedly being made. 

Royal Dutch Shell plc (Shell) is one such example of a company that says it is looking to support the growing interest in LNG bunkers by the cruise industry.

"The focus around LNG has dramatically increased. Our perspective is that this is a journey we want to help enable, building up infrastructure for sectors like cruise, building our network of bunkering options, and seeing the network development continue," says John Grubic, the LNG business development Lead for Shell Americas.

However LNG has also faced some new challenges in recent month, most notably in March when its environmental credentials were brought into question over methane slips.

However, Rebecca Moore, writing for LNG World Shipping, suggests this can be overcome by designing the methane slip factor into the infrastructure and supply chain.

Moore further suggests that the International Code of Safety for Ships using Gases or other Low-flashpoint Fuels (IGF Code) set to be published in January 2017, will also be a big boost for the use of LNG bunkers in cruise vessels, calling it "clear-set international standards that give a clear path and consistency for building cruise vessels that use LNG as a fuel."

The decision by the IMO expected in October on when the 0.5 percent global sulfur cap will come into force in 2020 or 2025 will undoubtedly also play its part in whether that 80 percent figure will be reached.