Vitol Projects Global Oil Demand in 2040 to Match Current Levels

by Ship & Bunker News Team
Tuesday February 4, 2025

Global energy and commodity trading firm Vitol projects that global oil demand will keep rising through 2030, with consumption stabilising at levels similar to today by 2040.

Oil demand is projected to hit 110 million b/d by the end of this decade, remaining stable until the mid-2030s before gradually declining to current levels of 105 million b/d by 2040, Vitol said in its latest long-term oil demand outlook report.

Vitol sees gasoline demand to remain steady over the coming years, before sharply declining from 2030 onwards.

Europe, China and the US together account for half of global gasoline consumption. The energy firm anticipates that gasoline demand in these regions will either remain flat or decline, with a downturn expected in the coming years.

It says gasoline demand in China has likely peaked with the rapid adoption of electric vehicles and could drop to 2.3 million b/d by 2040.

"By 2040, it is anticipated that gasoline demand in the EU, US and China will be roughly 5 million bpd lower than current levels," Vitol said.