IBIA CONVENTION 2025: Road Sector Dominance Seen Limiting Shipping's Influence on Biofuel

DNV's Jason Stefanatos speaking at a keynote presentation at the IBIA Annual Convention 2025. Image Credit: Ship & Bunker

Road fuels account for the overwhelming share of global biofuel demand, a dynamic that will limit shipping's ability to influence marine biofuel prices in the long term, according to classification society DNV.

Shipping accounted for a mere 0.6% of the global biofuel demand in 2023, with a major chunk, 98.9% taken up by road fuels, Jason Stefanatos, global decarbonization director at DNV, said in a keynote presentation at the IBIA Annual Convention 2025 in Hong Kong on Wednesday.

"The vast majority goes towards the road sector, and a small part of aviation, Stefanatos said.

"This is the competition that the shipping industry faces, and that maybe will cause a challenge for us to get our hands on these prices in the long-term future."

He suggested that shipping may struggle to secure enough biofuel in the long term as other sectors compete for the same supply.

With more countries shifting to electric vehicles, biofuel demand patterns are changing, and aviation is now moving quickly to decarbonise.

Because sustainable aviation fuel is expected to be prioritised, Stefanatos warned that this competition could make it harder for shipping to obtain the volumes it needs as it tries to scale up biofuels across the global fleet.

The DNV presentation indicated that even though marine biofuel sales are seen rising on paper in major bunker hubs like Singapore and Rotterdam, the volumes remain far too small for shipping to have any real influence over prices or feedstock availability.

Panel discussions later during the day also pointed to price pressure as a factor dampening significant uptake.

A representative from Fratelli Cosulich said biofuel demand had been lower than expected, largely because of higher prices.