EMEA News
EU Marine Fuel Cost Jumps as New EU-ETS Rules Take Effect from Jan 1, 2026
Total bunker costs for ships operating in Europe rise today, with new rules under the EU's emissions trading system (EU-ETS) taking effect from January 1, 2026.
In real terms, Ship & Bunker data indicates that at the end of 2025 owners were paying around $220 in EU-ETS compliance costs for every tonne of VLSFO burned on intra-EU voyages.
On January 1, 2026 that cost rises around 45% to $319/mt burned.
| Fuel type | Cost per mt of fuel burned | |
| On Dec 31, 2025 | On Jan 1, 2026 | |
| HSFO | $217 | $315 |
| VLSFO | $220 | $319 |
| (LS)MGO | $224 | $324 |
Tabe 1: Assumes constant EUA cost of €85.02
For context, the average price of VLSFO in the EMEA region at the end of 2025 was $464.50/mt.
What has changed?
As part of a 'phasing in' of these rules, for emissions produced in 2024 owners had to pay for only 40% of the applicable compliance costs.
For 2025 that rose to 70%.
From January 1, 2026 owners pay for 100% of the compliance cost.
The regulation requires ships over 5,000 GT in size touching EU ports to pay for their per-voyage emissions.
Specifics
There are a number of other factors to take into account for calculating the actual compliance cost. These are discussed in detail here: https://shipandbunker.com/compliance-costs#EUETS
For example, the per-voyage complaince cost is halved if only one EU port is involved.
Emissions generated during a calendar year are 'paid for' by purchasing and surrendering EUA's. This must be done by September of the following year, e.g. Calendar year 2025 emissions costs are paid in September 2026.
A common area of confusion arrises from the fact the cost reduction rules apply to the year the emissions are produced, not the year they are paid.
For example, in September 2026 owners will calculate the compliance cost for emissions produced in 2025 and pay only 70% of that cost.
The new rules that come into effect today mean in September 2027 owners will have to pay 100% of the cost of the emissions produced in 2026.
Further, 2026 also sees the following changes to the 'emission factors' used to calculate how many EUAs are required to be surrendered per tonne of bunker fuel burned.
| Fuel type | Emission factors | ||
| 2024 | 2025 | 2026 Onwards | |
| HSFO | 3.114 | 3.114 | 3.163 |
| VLSFO | 3.151 | 3.151 | 3.200 |
| (LS)MGO | 3.206 | 3.206 | 3.255 |
After starting the year a little over €70, the cost of an EUA fell to €60 by the end of Q1 2025 and has been rising since.
Ship & Bunker data indictes at the end of 2025 a single EUA cost around €85.02.
