Red Sea Diversions to Push up Shipping Emissions

Box shipping: emissions rise. File Image / Pixabay.

Diverting ships plying the Asia to Europe route round the Cape of Good Hope could push up emissions.

Container vessels are likely to be the most affected as there are few viable alternative sources of the goods and components they haul to consumer markets in Europe although the exact degree of the emissions change varies by vessel age and the fuel mix used, according to Reuters columnist Gavin Macguire.

For an average container vessel carrying 150,000 metric tonnes of cargo, the total estimated emissions for each journey from southern China to Rotterdam via the Suez Canal is around 41,000 mt of carbon dioxide, according to freight calculations Pier2Pier.com.

That emissions toll jumps to close to 55,000 mt when transiting via the southern tip of Africa, and so equates to roughly 14,000 mt more CO2 for each vessel that must take the longer route to Europe.

Some 20 container vessels have departed China for Rotterdam within the past 30 days, Macguire writes citing LSEG data, and the cumulative toll of the increased emissions is likely to have jumped by several hundred thousand tonnes just over the past month.

In addition, vessel speeds are edging up. The average speed of large container vessels so far in 2024 is just over 16 knots, according to LSEG. That compares to an average of 15.19 knots for 2023 as a whole, and represents a roughly 5% rise in average sailing speeds this year.

And any further increases in the number and types of vessels required to switch their routes from using the Suez Canal to transiting around southern Africa may push shipping emissions higher still.