World News
Latest Oil Price Outlook Puts VLSFO Bunker Prices in the $600's Until 2024
VLSFO bunker prices at major bunkering hubs look set to remain in the $600's until 2024, based on the latest crude price forecasts from market watchers Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley.
Morgan Stanley last week raised its Brent forecast to $85/bbl for Q3 and $82.50/bbl for Q4.
Goldman Sachs has a year end 2023 Brent forecast of $86/bbl, although last week warned lower OECD commercial stocks could lift this price to $88/bbl.
Data from Ship & Bunker's G20 bunker price index, that tracks bunker prices in 20 key global bunkering hubs, shows over the past 12 months VLSFO prices have closely tracked Brent.
Converted at 7.53 blbs/mt, Brent has averaged $630/mt during this time, while the G20-VLSFO price has averaged $657/mt - putting the premium for VLSFO over Brent at 4%
MGO has averaged $956/mt over the 12 month period ending August 25, 2023, a premium to Brent of 52%, while HSFO has averaged $490/mt, a discount to Brent of 22%.
If Brent holds true to the forecasted value range of 82.50/bbl to $88/bbl, and VLSFO remains at its premium of around 4% to Brent, this would indicate VLSFO bunkers for the remainder of 2023 will be priced between $648/mt and $691/mt, MGO between $943/mt and $1006/mt, and HSFO between $483/mt and $515/mt.
Brent today closed at $83.36/bbl.
Key Bunker Prices More
| VLSFO | MGO | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $/mt | +/- | $/mt | +/- | |
| Singapore | 571.00 | 1.50 | 685.50 | 5.50 |
| Rotterdam | 516.50 | 1.50 | 677.50 | 3.50 |
| Houston | 556.00 | 6.00 | 679.00 | 1.00 |
| Fujairah | 565.00 | 4.50 | 755.00 | 1.50 |
| Global 20 Ports Average | 589.00 | 3.00 | 764.50 | 3.50 |
| Global 4 Ports Average | 552.00 | 3.00 | 699.00 | 2.50 |
| Global Average Bunker Price | 635.50 | 1.00 | 811.50 | 11.00 |
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