Bunkering in 2020 Looking Distinctly Blurry, Says Analyst

2020: Everyone has his own opinion (file image/pixabay)

A marine analyst found himself none the wiser after attending a recent bunker conference dedicated to the impact of the 2020 sulfur cap on the bunker market .

Hoping for some insight, and despite "numerous speakers seeming to claim 20/20 vision on 2020", Andreas Hilides, who is a maritime analyst with S&P Global Platts Ocean Intelligence, said in a blog post that he felt his vision of how things might pan out "to be distinctly blurry".

He said the wide range of views presented was "frustrating for someone seeking clarity on the likely shape of the bunker market come 2020".

Hilides said that his sense of frustration was shared with other participants at the event.

"Speakers representing refiners and suppliers assured the audience that whatever direction the market ultimately took — be it scrubbers, burning compliant fuel or even simply ignoring the rules and consuming high sulfur fuel on the high seas – fuel availability wouldn't be a problem."

Impressive stuff yet "others just as strongly disagreed".

Opposing views were expressed across the board from "refinery capacity availability and differing takes on the direction of fuel prices" to "how the differentials between compliant and non-compliant fuel prices might play out".

Equally, the analyst found, "predictions ran the gamut on the likelihood of non-compliance, LNG adoption, electricity (batteries and other innovations), and the market share of high- versus low-sulfur fuels".

From the start of 2020, the global cap for sulfur in bunker fuel will fall from the current 3.5% level to 0.5%.