Meanwhile, Goldman predicts $100 oil on average for 2026 if the blockage persists: File Image/Pixabay

With Iran on Thursday still blocking the Strait of Hormuz despite a ceasefire between the Islamic republic and the U.S., oil prices predictably climbed but still settled in the relatively palatable double digits, with West Texas Intermediate settling at $97.87 per barrel and Brent ending the session at $95.92.

Trading was also driven by reports from Saudi Arabia that its oil production capacity had been reduced by around 600,000 barrels per day (bpd) due to attacks from Iran on its energy infrastructure; meanwhile, Kuwait successfully warded off Iranian drone attacks – some of which were aimed at destroying vital facilities.

As tensions remained high in anticipation of U.S. vice president J.D. Vance leading an American delegation on Saturday to discuss with Iranian counterparts terms that would end the five week-long war, Carl Larry, an oil and gas analyst at Enverus, remarked, “The fact of the matter is, it’s not over until it’s over; missiles, mines and drones are still running through the region.

“We can keep hope alive as talks continue, but damages, especially to areas that are sensitive to oil and shipping, are still a large part of the equation.”

Rebecca Babin, a senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Group, added, “While paper markets tend to price a full reopening, the physical reality is that any recovery in flows will be gradual — and hasn’t meaningfully begun.”

About the only certainty amid conflicting reports about what Iran and the U.S. are willing to give and concede to achieve peace is that both countries are far apart in their demands, and this caused strategists at Macquarie led by Thierry Wizman to state that upward pressure on oil prices may be “here to stay for a while.”

Still, Taiwan's state refiner and Glencore each booked a tanker to travel to the Middle East and load oil;  CPC has booked a tanker for transport of 2 million barrels of crude from the Middle East to Taiwan in the coming weeks, and Glencore has booked a supertanker to travel to the Middle East and load crude, according to sources.

Other refiners and traders are reportedly rushing to book vessels that will ultimately carry crude through the Strait.

Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs warned that if the Hormuz remained mostly closed to tanker traffic for another month, Brent would average above $100 throughout the remainder of 2026; if longer, then prices could average $120 per barrel in the third quarter and $115 in the final quarter of the year.