Oil Declines As Analysts Debate Impact of Trump's Proposed Takeover Of Greenland

Meanwhile, military action against Iran remains pending: File Image/Pixabay

U.S. president Donald Trump could yet again lay claim to motivating oil trading on Monday, with his bold bid to acquire Greenland and tough line stance on Iran causing traders to wonder whether global supplies would remain oversized or tightness would occur.

However, by 1417 GMT two key benchmarks were on the decline: Brent dipped 32 cents to $63.81 per barrel, and West Texas Intermediate shed 26 cents to $59.18.

The perception remained that Iran had stopped killing participants in the protests that have rocked the Islamic republic, causing Trump to step back from earlier threats of intervention.

Therefore, geopolitical focus shifted to Greenland, which Trump suggested could be obtained either willingly or by force.

Janiv Shah, analyst at Rystad Energy, said, "The market is now focusing on the Greenland situation and how deep any fallout between the U.S. and Europe could be, as any trade war expansion could impact demand."

Mukesh Sahdev, chief executive officer at XAnalysts Pty Ltd., added, "The market is not pricing a full retaliation between the US and the EU, and it's likely that a compromise will be found."

Trump's machinations aside, analysts didn't stray far from the accepted narrative that the global market will experience a significant glut this year; Warren Patterson, the head of commodities strategy at ING, said, "The outlook for a large surplus suggests prices should trend lower, while the potential for a further escalation in US-EU tensions poses further downside risk."

For the record, the U.S. Energy Information Administration's latest short term energy outlook projected that the WTI spot price will come in at $52.21 per barrel this year and $50.36 per barrel next year; previously, it predicted the WTI spot price would average $65.32 per barrel in 2025 and $51.42 per barrel in 2026.

In other oil news on Monday, anonymous traders told media that Vitol was offering Venezuelan crude to Chinese refiners at a discount of $5 per barrel, three times narrower compared to the illicit sales from Venezuela when president Nicolas Maduro was still in power.

Crude and fuel oil deliveries from Venezuela to China are estimated at just 166,000 barrels per day (bpd) in February, compared to an average of 642,000 bpd in 2025.