MARKET SURVEY: Major Hubs Saw Average 4.3% Yearly Gain in Q3 Volumes

Global bunker demand at key hubs gained 4.3% on the year in Q3. Image Credit: Ship & Bunker

    •  4.3% average advance in Q3 2025 vs Q3 2024
    •  Q3 volumes see 1.6% rise from Q2 2025
    •  US tariff policy continues to hit US and Panama volumes
    •  Read the full report here: shipandbunker.com/bi/bunker-volumes

Demand at key marine fuel hubs advanced on a yearly basis in the third quarter of 2025, according to the latest market survey of bunker sales volumes in 17 leading global locations.

As in previous quarters, Ship & Bunker and consultancy 2050 Marine Energy surveyed bunker market participants around the world alongside official data where available and found an average rise of 4.3% in volumes in the third quarter from the same period of 2024. The year-on-year advance compares with a 3.9% year-on-year decline in Q2. Q3 volumes sequentially were 1.6% higher than in Q2.

For the first three quarters of 2025 seen together, sales were up by 1.6% versus the same period a year earlier. Following the same trend over the remainder of the year would leave 2025 with the highest global sales since 2019.

The survey covers about 61.6% of the global demand total of 233.1 million mt for 2023 shown by official IMO data.

The market stands at a highly uncertain junction.

Trade disruptions caused by US tariffs earlier in the year started to stabilise over the summer, but the situation remains highly volatile, a particular concern at a time of shaky global economic growth.

The boost to global bunker demand delivered by Red Sea diversions appears to be coming to an end. The possibility of an end to the Russia-Ukraine war is also starting to become conceivable in the medium term, raising the prospect of more Russian fuel oil appearing in global markets.

And oil-market analysts are predicting a large surplus of crude production from OPEC+ members will deliver some of the lowest prices seen since the early 2020s in the new year.

But for now, volumes are still rising overall, driven in particular by strength at Asian hubs including Singapore and Zhoushan, and helped also by a healthy tanker market.

"Coming to terms with geopolitical and regulatory disruption might be the best descriptor of some aspects of Q3 demand," Adrian Tolson, owner of 2050 Marine Energy, told Ship & Bunker.  

"US demand shows stabilization and some growth after the challenges that followed Liberation Day, but 2025 will still be a disappointing year in terms of volumes.

"The same can't be said - at least in terms of volumes - for Asia, where we seem to be on track for records in 2025 for both China and Korea and near record for Singapore; perhaps a reflection of global disruption or some demand shift from the Med ECA?  

"The Med ECA impact, with an assist from continued Red Sea disruption, is perhaps most obvious with the jump in demand in the ARA and some weakness in Med ports. 

"ARA's success is also possibly due to overall price competitiveness against rival ports which has seemed more consistent in recent months."

US Markets Decline

Markets in the Americas saw particular stress in Q3, driven in large part by the impact of tariff policy.

The US Gulf, Panama, New York and LA/Long Beach markets all saw annual declines.

Physical supplier Bunker One USA recently revealed its response to long-term tightness in margins and volumes in the region has included releasing long-term tug and barge charters.

"These actions keep us reliable, agile, and resilient," the company said.

"When market conditions improve, we are well-positioned to scale and capture growth quickly."

But Dan-Bunkering USA took a more optimistic note in a recent interview with Ship & Bunker, saying the impact of tariffs has been overstated so far.

"Discussing it around the table with people, it doesn't seem to have trickled down," Christian Vandvig Finnerup, the new managing director of Dan-Bunkering USA, said.

"It still seems not to have affected - at least not on a substantial scale - the day-to-day operations of our customers."

Mediterranean ECA

Q3 was the first full quarter of the new Mediterranean 0.1% sulfur emissions control area (ECA) being in force, and the impact on the market is now more visible. 

"In volume terms, the market has experienced some contraction," Giampaolo Gargiulo, managing director of Alpha Trading, told Ship & Bunker.

"ULSFO has not fully replaced VLSFO, at least in Italy, although this decline has been partially offset by increased gasoil consumption.

"More broadly, the Mediterranean market is becoming increasingly regionalised as a consequence of the new regulatory framework, to the benefit of extra-Mediterranean volumes.

"There is also ongoing uncertainty linked to current routing patterns: many vessels are still circumnavigating Africa, and those calling in the Mediterranean are therefore still lifting product.

"Should traffic through the Suez Canal resume more fully, there is a risk of a further volume contraction in the region."

Data from testing firm VPS's samples at the top ten Mediterranean ports show in the period from May to October 2025, VLSFO took up about 30% of demand, HSFO 29%, MGO 30%, ULSFO 8% and biofuels 4%. This compares to respective shares of 53%, 28%, 16%, 2% and 1% in the six months before.

Methodology

As with the previous surveys the areas covered by the survey are Singapore, the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) hub, Fujairah, the US Gulf, South Korea, Russia, the Gibraltar Strait, Hong Kong, Panama, Zhoushan, Japan, New York, West Africa, South Africa, the Canary Islands, Los Angeles/Long Beach and Turkey. Data is sourced from a combination of market participants and official records.

The full breakdown of the survey results, including sales volumes in each bunkering region for Q3 2025 and 2024, is available by clicking here.