Bulls Forecast 2017 As "One of the Best Oil Years," Cooler Heads See Crude Capped at $60

Amid further predictions of oil hitting $100/bbl, a new Reuters poll pegs oil in a more conservative $60 neighbourhood.

Just one day after Tim Pickering, founder of Auspice Capital Advisors, commented that the market could see $100 oil within the next five years, another respected energy expert went a step further on Thursday by saying that figure could be achieved in 2017.

Dan Dicker, president of MercBloc, told Bloomberg Daybreak: Americas that "I see an outside shot of triple digits by the end of the year."

He predicted that the New Year overall will be "one of the best oil years in my history that I can remember: everything is lining up as a perfect storm, and nobody would want to be short right now."

Dicker bases his optimism not just on fundamentals, but on analysis from many sources showing that the market will soon rebalance, as well as the notion that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries' (OPEC) cutback deal will play out as hoped based on Saudi Arabia and oil-dependent Russia having vested interests in making it work.

Dicker bases most of his enthusiasm on the incoming administration of the Donald Trump presidency: "everyone who's coming into this [administration] has some connection to oil," he said, adding that the influence extends beyond the obvious departments to areas such as commerce and the military.

But Dicker and Pickering seem to hold the minority view of oil's near-term potential.

More common is a new Reuters poll showing that prices will rise toward $60 per barrel by the end of 2017.

The poll sought the input of 29 analysts and economists, who based their forecast on the possibility of OPEC members cheating on their output reduction obligations; a stronger U.S. dollar; and a likely recovery in U.S. oil output.

Daniela Corsini, analyst for Intesa SanPaolo, said, "Crude prices should trade most of the time above their 2016 average; a stronger upside potential should become evident, especially in the second half when the market fundamentals will record a significant improvement (under the assumption of strong compliance to the OPEC deal)."

While Brent will average $56.90 in 2017, it will hit $59.78 in the fourth quarter, according to the poll results.

Even though Thomas Pugh, analyst for Capital Economics, expects the OPEC deal to only be partly implemented, he remarked that the "cuts should still be large enough to help rebalance the market."

As for the U.S. dollar, Giorgos Beleris, analyst at Thomson Reuters Oil Research and Forecasts, echoed the sentiments of many experts by stating,  "A broad risk for the recovery of oil prices is the U.S. dollar, which has risen to multi-year high levels...the greenback will eventually mount pressure on oil prices and may curb any gains seen from tighter fundamentals."

In addition to mulling over the prospect of $100 oil, Pickering told CBC News that 2017 will be a good year for crude regardless of adverse circumstances: "Regardless of OPEC cutting 500,000 or 1 million or 1.5 million barrels and sticking to that, we're generally positive and think we're going to be on a positive trajectory here for some time.

"The supply demand balance is coming back regardless of OPEC."