Oil Remains Rangebound As Russia/Ukraine Peace Sentiment Swings Between Hopeful And Pessimistic

Meanwhile, oil movement is brisk in Russia and China: File Image/Pixabay

Analytical focus on Thursday remained on the prospect of peace between Russia and Ukraine, with oil extending its minuscule gains in thin trading due to the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday.

Brent settled up 21 cents at $63.34 per barrel, and West Texas Intermediate was up 45 cents to $59.10 per barrel by 1846 GMT.

Mood swings between optimism and doubt that Russia and Ukraine would ultimately agree to the peace deal brokered by Washington ensured that oil remained range bound, and bearish sentiment overall was stoked by earlier reports of a major U.S. stockpile build.

Bloomberg summarized the current state of the market by writing that oil was "headed for the longest run of monthly losses in more than two years, as traders looked ahead to an OPEC+ meeting this weekend and gauged U.S.-led efforts to end the conflict in Ukraine."

A source familiar with the matter told media that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries was likely to leave oil output levels unchanged on Sunday and perhaps impose a mechanism that would assess maximum output caps.

In other oil news on Thursday, the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air disclosed in a report that 113 Russian 'shadow' vessels flew a false flag during their operations in the first nine months of 2025, exporting $5.4 billion worth of Russian oil between January and September.

"The number of Russian 'shadow' tankers sailing under false flags is now increasing at an alarming rate," said the report's co-author, Luke Wickenden.

Also on Thursday, trade sources said China's independent refiners (aka: "teapots") were given 8 million tons across 21 facilities for 2026 crude import quotas, a noticeable increase from the 6 million tons issued this time last year.

Oilprice.com noted that "There's still plenty of crude sloshing around Asia and nobody suddenly believes U.S. sanctions have grown fangs overnight, but these new quotas at least stop the floorboards from giving way... China does a little pre- Black Friday shopping, and everyone else breathes slightly easier."