World News
2018 to See Dry Bulk Fleet Grow at Slowest Pace Since 1999: BIMCO
BIMCO says 2018 is likely to see the dry bulk fleet grow at its slowest pace since 1999 while global demand growth outstrips supply growth.
Still, BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst Peter Sand says "2018 may not be quite as strong as 2017, and profits may not come around until 2019."
Sand explains that a decline in demolition activity has been observed while the bulk fleet has continued to grow - a scenario that could hinder market recovery.
With nominal fleet growth in 2018 forecast at about 1 percent, the BIMCO analyst says maintaining slow steaming will become the focus.
"If we get notably higher average ship speed the pace of recovery will slow down, if not go directly into reverse," said Sand.
However, Sand notes that it is still China's economic growth and appetite for dry bulk commodities remains the key driver for the bulk shipping market.
"Demand growth in 2017 has surely been a positive surprise. Growing at almost double the pace of our initial expectations, a demand growth rate of 5 percent is a three-year-high," said Sand of the country's demand.
BIMCO suggests that an early indication of 2018 demand growth in Chinese iron ore imports - up by 3 percent - is positive, whereas coal is likely to remain steady.
Key Bunker Prices More
| VLSFO | MGO | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $/mt | +/- | $/mt | +/- | |
| Singapore | 648.00 | 2.00 | 808.00 | 10.00 |
| Rotterdam | 613.50 | 4.50 | 792.00 | 21.50 |
| Houston | 646.00 | 3.00 | 851.00 | 13.50 |
| Fujairah | 647.50 | 1.50 | 900.00 | 0.50 |
| Global 20 Ports Average | 672.50 | 0.50 | 896.50 | 0.50 |
| Global 4 Ports Average | 638.50 | 2.00 | 838.00 | 4.00 |
| Global Average Bunker Price | 727.00 | 2.00 | 943.00 | 2.00 |
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