Long-Term Fate Of Russia's Crude Exports Weighed As Novorossiysk Reopens, Oil Eases

Meanwhile, Trump doesn't rule out sending troops to Venezuela: File Image/Pixabay

The shutdown to Russia's port of Novorossiysk that caused oil prices to surge last week proved to be fleeting, and correspondingly the resumption of loadings resulted on Monday in the easing of two key benchmarks, albeit minimally.

Novorossiysk,where Transneft suspended 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) of shipments following a drone attack by Ukraine, was offline for only two days; however, Ukraine's military over the weekend said it hit hit Russia's Ryazan  as well as the Novokuibyshevsk oil refineries, which prompted investors to speculate about the long-term effect on Russian crude exports.

As for the U.S. sanctions against the former Soviet Union, Argus Media data released Monday showed that the price of Urals crude, Russia's main export blend, fell to $36.61 per barrel at the end of last week for cargoes loaded from Novorossiysk – the fallout from India and China pulling back from crude purchases ahead of a U.S. sanctions deadline aimed at state-controlled Rosneft and Lukoil.

Brent on Monday settled down 19 cents at $64.20 per barrel, and West Texas Intermediate settled down 18 cents to $59.91.

Giovanni Staunovo, analyst at UBS, suggested that oil might be supported for the foreseeable future despite a host of developments: "Rising oil-on-water levels have not yet led to an increase in on-land inventories," he explained in a note, adding, "While we expect prices to dip to the lower part of the trading range over the coming months, we hold a more constructive outlook for the second half of 2026."

Another potential development that could massively affect trading is Venezuela; U.S. president Donald Trump on Monday said  he is not ruling out sending troops to the oil-rich South American country but is willing to talk with his Venezuelan counterpart, Nicolas Maduro.

In other oil news, London-listed Gulf Keystone Petroleum confirmed that a first cargo lifting of Kurdistan crude had been completed at the Turkish Ceyhan oil terminal; a second lifting of Kurdistan crude is planned for the end of November 2025.

Crude exports from Kurdistan via the Iraq-Turkey pipeline to Ceyhan reached 205,000 bpd in October.