World News
VLSFO May Average as Little as $411/MT Next Year
A weakening crude market may deliver global average VLSFO prices at as little as $411/mt next year.
The US Energy Information Administration's (EIA) latest short-term economic outlook forecasts an average Brent crude price of just $51.43/bl in 2026, down from $58.48/bl in the outlook published a month ago. On a quarterly basis the low point next year is projected at $49.67/bl in Q2, before a rise up to $54/bl by Q4.
The organisation cited OPEC+ crude production increases as the key factor behind expectations of further price drops next year.
Over the past year, Ship & Bunker's G20-VLSFO Index of prices at 20 leading bunkering locations has averaged at a premium of about 6.1% to Brent prices.
Taking that average premium, the EIA's latest full-year 2026 forecast would put the G20-VLSFO Index at an average price of about $411/mt next year, down by 31.5% from the average of about $600/mt seen so far this year.
The last time the G20-VLSFO Index was as low as $411/mt was in December 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic was heavily suppressing global crude demand.
Key Bunker Prices More
| VLSFO | MGO | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $/mt | +/- | $/mt | +/- | |
| Singapore | 500.00 | 2.50 | 649.00 | 10.50 |
| Rotterdam | 478.00 | 0.50 | 656.50 | 5.50 |
| Houston | 482.00 | 0.00 | 655.50 | 3.00 |
| Fujairah | 487.50 | 5.50 | 721.00 | 4.50 |
| Global 20 Ports Average | 531.00 | 1.00 | 745.50 | 7.50 |
| Global 4 Ports Average | 487.00 | 2.00 | 670.50 | 4.50 |
| Global Average Bunker Price | 569.50 | 2.50 | 791.00 | 4.00 |
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