World News
New Ship Orders Slump Amid US-China Tensions and IMO Vote: Drewry
Newbuild orders have plunged to historically low levels in early 2025, as shipowners avoid long-term investment decisions amid global uncertainty.
Two key factors are driving the slowdown: potential US trade restrictions on China-built vessels and the upcoming IMO vote on its Net Zero Framework, according to consultancy Drewry.
The US administration is considering measures that would restrict or penalise ships built at Chinese yards, traditionally dominant in dry bulk construction.
While the United States Trade Representative (USTR) has delayed a final decision, the risk has already hit order volumes. China's share of dry bulk orders fell from over 75% in 2024 to just 40% in 2025 to date.
High newbuilding prices and a 5% cost premium at Japanese yards further complicate decisions, especially for those shifting away from China due to geopolitical risk.
Meanwhile, shipowners are also waiting for regulatory clarity.
The IMO is scheduled to vote in October 2025 on its Net Zero Framework, which could introduce global carbon pricing and define incentives for ships using zero- or near-zero-emission fuels.
Until those rules are formalised, owners face uncertainty on engine and marine fuel choices and potential future compliance costs, Drewry said.
Drewry expects only a gradual recovery in orders post-October, with a more substantial rebound likely from 2027 once both trade and climate rules become clearer.
Key Bunker Prices More
| VLSFO | MGO | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $/mt | +/- | $/mt | +/- | |
| Singapore | 512.50 | 0.50 | 622.00 | 1.00 |
| Rotterdam | 481.50 | 2.50 | 624.50 | 1.00 |
| Houston | 481.50 | 1.00 | 635.00 | 7.50 |
| Fujairah | 504.00 | 1.50 | 707.00 | 4.50 |
| Global 20 Ports Average | 534.50 | 2.00 | 717.00 | 1.50 |
| Global 4 Ports Average | 494.50 | 1.00 | 647.00 | 1.00 |
| Global Average Bunker Price | 572.00 | 1.50 | 763.00 | 2.00 |
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