Oil Drops Again As Market Fears Russia Conflict, Cheers Potential Return of Iran Oil

by Ship & Bunker News Team
Thursday February 17, 2022

Despite some futures spreads having reached their strongest levels in data going back to 2007, oil prices on Thursday once again dipped, this time by 2 percent in the case of West Texas Intermediate.

With the potential of Iran returning to the international market seemingly imminent, WTI fell $1.90 to settle at $91.76 per barrel, while Brent dropped $1.84 to settle at $92.97 per barrel.

Stephen Brennock, senior analyst at PVM, explained Thursday's trading activity by noting that "The oil market is locked in a tug of war between Iranian sanctions relief and Russia-Ukraine tensions."

But despite the price declines in the most recent sessions, Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB AB, pointed out that "Price action since just before Christmas has been an incredibly bullish one-way street; you don't see that unless market is very, very tight."

Still, a growing number of experts think successful nuclear talks with Iran could blunt the rally and help provide much-needed relief to global demand needs.

Craig Erlam, market analyst at OANDA, theorized that a deal "could mean around 1.3 million barrels per day [bpd] of crude quickly re-entering the market."

He added that, "The price [of oil] could already be in triple-figure territory if not for the nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran."

As for the Russia/Ukraine conflict, exchanges of fire on Thursday between Kyiv's forces and pro-Russian separatists added to fears that incursion could come at any time.