Baltic Dry Index Falls to 325, 1,430 Vessels Need to be Laid Up to Restore Balance, Says Analyst

Thursday January 28, 2016

Despite JPMorgan's optimistic outlook for dry bulk yesterday, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) Thursday fell once again, dropping 12 points to a new record low of 325.

Again, average spot TC rates were down across the board, with capesize falling back under the $3,000 per day mark once more, ending the day at $2,851 per day.

Average spot TC rates for Panamax and Supramax vessels dropped to $2,348 per day, and $3,301 per day respectively.

Analysts and market watchers alike seem to have said everything there is to say on the unprecedented decline for now, and today there was little more to add to the familiar story of not enough demand growth from China, and way too many ships.

Allied Shipbroking, at least, put a number on how many ships it believes need to be laid up in order to restore balance; 1,430, or almost 15 percent of the current fleet, bringing the dry bulk fleet size back down to 2012 levels.

"This might sound to some as too high a figure and it is likely that a reasonable figure would be somewhere in-between 2% and 15%, in any case however it will be time which will tell if end where the actual figure finally ends up at," said George Lazaridis, Head of Market Research & Asset Valuations at Allied Shipbroking.

Yesterday Ship & Bunker reported that JPMorgan upgraded the outlook for three listed carriersScorpio Bulkers Inc [NYSE:SALT] (Scorpio Bulkers), Star Bulk Carriers Corp. [NASDAQ:SBLK] (Star Bulk), and Navios Maritime Holdings Inc. [NYSE:NM] (Navios Maritime).