Meanwhile, more pundits warn of oil heading to the $200 mark: File Image/Pixabay

Oil on Tuesday was poised to log the biggest monthly gains ever due to supply shock caused by the U.S./Iran war, with Brent hovering at $118 per barrel (a 5.7 percent rise) and West Texas Intermediate gaining a far more modest 0.7 percent rise to about $103 per barrel.

As always, Trump either by nature or design continued to throw off analysts by sending mixed messages about the war’s progress; overnight, media reported that he was ready to walk away from the war, and mere hours later he told allies to “just TAKE IT,” referring to oil transport through the Strait of Hormuz, now controlled by Iran.

Trump also told European allies, “You’ll have to start learning how to fight for yourself, the U.S.A. won’t be there to help you anymore, just like you weren’t there for us,” and in a separate statement he estimated that the U.S. will finish its campaign in Iran in two to three weeks.

Jamie Dixon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, echoed the sentiments of Gulf allies by urging Trump to finish what he started: “It’s much more important that this be successfully completed than what the market does.

“We should all hope that these bad people—that we win this thing and clean up the straits and that Iran is no longer a threat to everybody.”

Meanwhile, a March survey of 38 economists and analysts by Reuters predicted that Brent will average $82.85 per barrel in 2026, about 30 percent higher than $63.85 forecast in February; this is the steepest annual forecast increase since the news agency began stockpiling polling data in 2005.

The poll also acknowledged that supply from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is expected to fall by up to 11 million barrels per day in the second quarter.

Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, said, "Another few weeks of disruption carries the risk that oil futures based west of Suez will replicate the high prices already seen east of Suez…Unless the Strait opens soon, the risk of prices rallying to demand destruction territory cannot be ruled out."

John Paisie, president of Stratas Advisors, echoed earlier sentiments by warning, "If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for another month with no signs of a pending resolution, the price of Brent crude will move toward $190."