Qatar Strikes Boost Oil, But Impact Of Attack Downplayed

Meanwhile, a drop in U.S. crude, gasoline stocks is anticipated: File Image/Pixabay

Geopolitical tension in the form of Israel wiping out Hamas leaders in Qatar contributed to oil eking out another round of gains on Tuesday, with lingering relief over the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries' (OPEC) smaller than expected output hike also lending support.

As of 1539 GMT, Brent rose 74 cents to $66.76 per barrel, and West Texas Intermediate also climbed 74 cents to $63 per barrel.

Jane Foley, head of FX strategy at Rabobank, said of Israel's strikes,
"It's difficult at this stage for the markets to examine this particular geopolitical risk in the context of the risk that is already on the table; clearly there is a possibility that there is an escalation but I think the market will be fairly cautious about making that assumption until more details are known."

Michael Brown, senior research strategist at Pepperstone, added, "I'd expect the rally in crude to fade relatively rapidly, as we've tended to see with geopolitically-induced gains over the last few months, as focus the dust settles, calmer heads prevail, and focus returns to the fundamentals of an already-oversupplied market, into which OPEC+ are adding even more barrels from the start of next month."

That fundamentals focus, which has leaned to the bearish side for months now, was expressed on Tuesday by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, whose Short-Term Energy Outlook stated 
that global oil inventories are set to grow by an average of more than 2 million barrels per day (bpd) in the current quarter through the first quarter of next year.

The accelerated timeline doesn't include OPEC's production increase; however, the EIA added that domestic output will decline in 2026, the first annual drop in production since 2021.

Meanwhile, trading in the near term could be influenced by a Wall Street Journal survey showing
that U.S. crude inventories as well as gasoline and distillate fuel stocks declined last week as refineries slowed their pace of production; the EIA will release official figures on Wednesday.

Longer-term trading patterns were suggested on Tuesday by Bart Melek, head of commodity strategy at TD Securities, who said, "We expect WTI to drop back into the high-$50s territory in the coming months if risk appetite wanes and shale supply surprises to the upside."