US-China Truce Offers Little Relief for Container Freight Market: Xeneta

by Ship & Bunker News Team
Monday November 3, 2025

The US and China's new 12-month trade truce, including tariff cuts and suspended port fees, is unlikely to stop container freight rates from falling in 2026, according to freight analytics firm Xeneta.

Average container spot rates from China to the US West Coast have fallen 59% year-on-year to $2,147 per FEU, while East Coast rates are down 48% to $3,044, the firm said in an emailed statement on Friday.

Emily Stausboll, senior shipping analyst at Xeneta, said global spot rates could fall up to 25% in 2026 amid weak demand, high tariffs and excess vessel capacity.

“Xeneta expects global average spot rates to fall up to 25% for the full year 2026 and long-term rates to drop up to 10% against this backdrop of subdued demand between the world’s two most powerful trading nations," Stausboll said.

“The US-China truce sees the removal of port fees for ships calling at both sides of the Pacific.

“This is welcome news for carriers, with some being hit with multi-million-dollar port fees, but they are still heading towards potentially loss-making territory if long-term contract rates drop significantly below pre-Red Sea Crisis levels at the end of 2023.”

Stausboll warned US-China agreement is only a temporary 12-month truce, not a lasting trade deal, leaving both carriers and shippers facing continued uncertainty.

“No one can say with any degree of certainty what the situation will be when the truce expires – or even if the agreement lasts the full 12 months," she said.

Ship & Bunker News Team
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