Most Major Hubs Saw Bunker Volumes Decline in Q1

Bunker hub demand dropped by 3.1% on the year on average in Q1. Image Credit: Ship & Bunker

    •  3.1% average decline in Q1 2025 vs Q1 2024
    •  Q1 volumes see 2.5% fall from Q4 2024
    •  Red Sea effect on container hubs is easing
    •  Read the full report here: shipandbunker.com/bi/bunker-volumes

Demand at key marine fuel hubs slipped on a yearly basis in the first quarter of 2025, according to the latest market survey of bunker sales volumes in 17 leading global locations.

As in previous quarters, Ship & Bunker and consultancy 2050 Marine Energy surveyed bunker market participants around the world alongside official data where available and found an average fall of 3.1% in volumes in the first quarter from the same period of 2024. The year-on-year decline compares with a 2.9% year-on-year advance in Q4 2024. Q1 volumes sequentially were 2.5% lower than in Q4.

Ship & Bunker has been running this survey since 2020, and Q1 marks the first quarter when volumes were down year-on-year in all of the top three hubs - Singapore, ARA and Fujairah. More typically during downturns demand tends to consolidate at the largest hubs, where prices are generally lower than smaller ports, and this not happening in 2025 provides a strong indicator of a general decline in shipping activity. 

2024's total sales at the 17 locations had reached 143.575 million mt, up by 4% on the year and the most since 2019, the year before the COVID-19 pandemic curtailed global shipping demand.

If Q1's performance were replicated over the remainder of the year, 2025's total would be 141.984 million mt, down by 1% from 2024 but still higher than any year since 2019.

The survey covers about 61.6% of the global demand total of 233.1 million mt for 2023 shown by official IMO data.

"We have seen a significant drip in volumes in the Black Sea and Eastern Med due to the Ukraine-Russian war - drops probably greater than one would expect," Jesper Christensen, managing partner of bunker trading firm BlackCoral Energy, told Ship & Bunker.

"The sanctions have of course had their effect, but there is also just a general lack of cargoes.

"Even in many parts of Europe we see that volumes are down, which is also driving the bunker market to be increasingly competitive."

One exception to the general downward trend was in Panama, where sales jumped by 24% year-on-year. But this jump reflected a recovery from abnormally low levels a year earlier driven by low water levels in the Panama Canal limiting transits, rather than any increase in shipping activity.

Geopolitics Rules the Roost

A range of geopolitical factors is likely to dictate bunker demand levels in 2025, with the mixed direction in bunker volumes in the first three months of the year showing the volatility of the situation and uncertainty over where the market will move next.

Suez transits are starting to pick up again, meaning these vessels will stop taking longer routes around Africa - consuming more fuel - in the hope that the targeting of commercial ships in and around Yemeni waters has come to an end.

But the situation in Yemen is far from stable, and no universal return to using Suez appears likely in the short term.

President Donald Trump returned to the White House in January, bringing with him a relentless focus on tariffs as a means of supporting domestic production in the US. Trade policy in the US has been highly changeable since then, but the general trend towards tariffs much higher than historical levels is likely to have a significant dampening effect on global trade.

Foreign policy from the Trump Administration on Israel, Iran, Yemen and Russia is also being closely watched by the oil markets, with changes in any of these areas liable to bring about rapid changes in the market.

"I think we need to be careful drawing too many conclusions from this quarter's demand figures," 2050 Marine Energy's Adrian Tolson told Ship & Bunker.

"US tariff policy has created a confused state in shipping that will possibly continue for the rest of the year and its impact on various bunker markets seems equally confusing. 

"Significant demand drops in some Asian ports, particularly Singapore, are not surprising and may in fact reflect a global slowdown in shipping activity that predated Trump's Presidency. 

"It could be alternatively argued that the pre-Liberation Day shipping activity should have peaked demand, which it did not, particularly in the main US ports."

Emissions Regulations

Emissions regulations are also playing an increasingly large role in the market in 2025.

At the start of 2025 the phasing-in of the EU's emissions trading system for shipping ratcheted up, with shipowners now needing to buy allowances for 70% of their emission on intra-EU voyages, while the FuelEU Maritime regulation came into effect at the same time. Both changes should drive increased demand for biofuels in the short term.

The Mediterranean ECA came into effect in May, driving a significant share of global bunker demand towards distillates and away from VLSFO.

And the IMO agreed its global GHG framework in April, subject to another vote in October, imposing global GHG emission standards for shipping from 2028. The decision is likely to drive both uptake of biofuels in the short term and the ordering of ships capable of running on zero-carbon fuels in the years ahead.

Future Outlook

Making any prediction about future volumes levels remains difficult while the global economic outlook looks so uncertain, Tolson told Ship & Bunker.

"Q2 promises to be even more unpredictable," he said.

"Tariff disruption continues, not to mention the Med ECA and continued old and new geopolitical issues."

Methodology

As with the previous surveys the areas covered by the survey are Singapore, the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) hub, Fujairah, the US Gulf, South Korea, Russia, the Gibraltar Strait, Hong Kong, Panama, Zhoushan, Japan, New York, West Africa, South Africa, the Canary Islands, Los Angeles/Long Beach and Turkey. Data is sourced from a combination of market participants and official records.

The full breakdown of the survey results, including sales volumes in each bunkering region for Q1 2025 and 2024, is available by clicking here.