IMO 2020 Not the End of the Story, Global Sulfur Cap Will Eventually Fall Further Down: Total

Olivier Jouny, Managing Director, Total Marine Fuels Global Solutions

As bunker buyers and suppliers alike contemplate their strategy for complying with the lowering of the global sulfur cap on marine fuel to 0.50% from January 1, 2020, Total Marine Fuels Global Solutions' Managing Director, Olivier Jouny, says the industry should expect the global sulfur cap to eventually fall even further down.

"If we look where we were in 2010 and where we will be in 2020, we will have divided the sulfur cap in [emissions control area] ECA zones by a factor of 15 from 1.5% to 0.10%, and in open water by almost a factor of 10 from 4.5% to 0.5%. This trend is important and we believe IMO 2020 is not the end of the story," he told Ship & Bunker.

"If we also look at what land-based transport has achieved in the last 20 years and compare that to what shipping has achieved, I do not see any reason why we would stop here and why there would not be any additional change for shipping. We may first see ECA zones enlarged, or new zones introduced, but eventually there will be a stricter sulfur content limit on marine fuel."

In recent years, IMO and Shipping as a whole have come under increasing pressure to tackle other emissions, and following the sector's omission from the COP21 global climate deal, new regulations designed to tackle at least GHGs seem inevitable.

"IMO2020 is an important step but it is just one step. In the future, there will not only be tighter sulfur regulations but also more regulations on NOx, particulate matters and GHG. This is why [liquefied natural gas] LNG is a good choice because it solves not just sulfur emissions " said Jouny.

"This is one reason why I think CMA CGM have chosen to use LNG for its latest newbuilds. Economics are a key factor and must make sense, but beyond this it is a matter of mindset and understanding the trend of future regulation changes. This is an important driver for the industry."