IBIA's Edmund Hughes: IMO 2028 Deal Likely to Be Adopted in October

Edmund Hughes is IBIA's IMO representative. Image Credit: IBIA

The IMO's new policy framework for decarbonisation, preliminarily approved at last week's meeting of the Marine Environment Protection Committee, is likely to pass its final challenge when it comes up for adoption later this year, according to bunker industry body IBIA's IMO representative.

The deal agreed last week sets a tiered approach to charging shipping for its GHG emissions, and is due to enter effect from 2028 if adopted.

In a rare vote at the IMO on Friday, 63 member states voted in favour of the policy framework, 16 voted against and 25 abstained. 

The deal will now need to be adopted at an extraordinary session of the MEPC in October.

Having passed the stage of approval last week, getting the measure adopted now looks likely, Edmund Hughes, IBIA's IMO representative, said at a members' meeting on Monday.

"We still have another big hurdle to come which is in October, when these amendments are due to be adopted," Hughes said.

"I'll say it straight away: I expect them to be adopted, now; I think this was the big hurdle.

"Those who abstained from the vote for various reasons will look at it in the cold light of day and realise that it is going to be a way forward.

"Not necessarily the ideal way forward for their needs, but a way forward. And I think politically, it will  be seen as acceptable."

A senior bunker-industry executive speaking at the meeting agreed with Hughes's analysis, but said it would be important to bring some of those abstaining into voting in favour.

"The interesting ones are the abstentions, because those are the ones that need to be won over to the 'yes' side between now and October," the executive said.

"As Edmund said, it is probably very likely to go through in October.

"But in order to have a truly global deal, we also need to think about the consequences if some countries simply just decide to stay out of the regulatory agreement.

"What does it mean for global coverage?"

October Vote

While the vote at MEPC 83 only required a simple majority of member states to approve the deal, the vote to adopt the amendments in October will require a two-thirds majority of contracting parties to MARPOL Annex VI to vote in favour, Hughes said.

This will make it all the more important for those abstaining at MEPC 83 to vote in favour next time.

"As of MEPC 83, there were 108 parties to MARPOL Annex VI, so a working majority would be 72 to be a two-thirds majority," he said.

"I do expect a vote [at the next meeting] because I think it's very difficult for some of the countries that voted against it this time; their position will not change by the time we reach the MEPC extraordinary session."