Don't Plan For GHG Reductions Using "Totally Unrealistic" Projections for Shipping: BIMCO

Wednesday February 13, 2019

With the IMO2030 and IMO2050 GHG reduction targets set, BIMCO today has warned the industry not to base its efforts to reduce emissions from marine shipping on “totally unrealistic” previous projects.

"It is imperative that the industry – and the world – base discussions and actions to reduce emissions from shipping on credible and realistic projections. If not, we risk making the wrong decisions and spending resources ineffectively,” says Lars Robert Pedersen, BIMCO Deputy Secretary General. 

IMO is set to initiate its fourth IMO GHG study in the first half of 2019, and BIMCO says we should avoid planning for scenarios that it is now clear are not going to transpire.

"The previous study’s most pessimistic projection of a 250% increase in CO2 emissions from shipping has since proven to be totally unrealistic, given the actual and projected economic development of the world,” Pedersen says. 

"Unfortunately, the 250% projection has frequently been used as a stick against the shipping industry and to shape regional policy. BIMCO wants to avoid that happening again."

BIMCO has collaborated with CE Delft to produce a new report with revised calculations that include the most recent OECD GDP projections.

The proposal has been made to the expert workshop preparing for the study, which is meeting in London 12-14 March.

“We will need new solutions, in addition to traditional efficiency measures, to reach the 2050 target. But to pick the right solutions, we need realistic projections,” Pedersen says. 

The report, Technical and methodological issues related to the Fourth IMO GHG Study, is available here.