Subdued Trade and IMO Rules to Stall Bunker Demand Growth Through 2030: IEA

IEA says bunker fuel demand is set to remain flat through 2030 as weak trade and tightening IMO rules offset shipping growth. File Image / Pixabay

Global bunker fuel demand is expected to flatline at around 5 million b/d through 2030, as tightening IMO regulations and weak trade growth weigh on the sector, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its Oil 2025 report released this month.

Disruptions in global shipping, including Red Sea vessel attacks and drought-driven restrictions at the Panama Canal, led some operators to reroute or increase speeds, initially boosting bunker use.

Still, international bunkering only rose by 140,000 b/d in 2024, with gains capped by soaring freight and insurance costs.

Sluggish economic growth, particularly in Germany, further dampened bunker sales in Europe, the organisation said.

Looking ahead, the IEA warns that 2025's escalating tariff tensions will worsen conditions for global trade.

Marine fuel demand is likely to be hit hard, as shipping activity grows more slowly than the economy due to factors like slowing globalisation.

While shipping activity is projected to rise 10% in tonne-kilometres (tkm) by 2030, this will be offset by ongoing fuel efficiency gains and regulatory measures in the industry.

IEA says IMO decarbonisation rules are driving change in traditional bunker fuel use.

After the IMO 2020 sulfur cap, the Mediterranean became an SECA zone in May 2025 with a stricter 0.1% sulfur limit. A global GHG pricing system, set for approval in October and implementation in 2028, will penalise high-emission ships, pushing the shift to cleaner marine fuels like biofuels, ammonia and hydrogen.

Together, these measures are expected to steadily erode demand for traditional bunker fuels.

IEA sees fuel oil import dependency to remain high through 2030 at the world's biggest bunker hub – Singapore.