Image and data source: Ship & Bunker

• EIA sees Brent crude to average $114.6/bl in Q2
• G20-VLSFO prices now forecast to average $913/mt in Q2, up from forecast  of $708/mt last month
• Crude prices have been down sharply since the report was released yesterday

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) on Tuesday, lifting its Brent crude price forecast on a quarterly and annual basis through to the end of 2027.

For 2026 Q2 EIA now sees Brent at an average price of $114.60/bl in Q2, $99.80/bl in Q3, and $88.00/bl in Q4.

It estimates Brent crude to average $96.00/bl in 2026 and $76.09/bl in 2027 as a whole.

These figures are up from $90.56/bl in Q2, $75.45/bl in Q3, $70/bl in Q4 and $78.84bbl for the whole of 2026, in a report released a month earlier.

Despite the stronger forecast, current market pricing remains below these levels after crude prices fell sharply Wednesday.

ICE Brent July futures were trading at $94.76/bl at 04:59 London time on Wednesday, with crude prices falling sharply after US President Donald Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran on Tuesday, and more importantly, the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. 

Bunker Price Implications

Based on the EIA’s updated crude outlook, Ship & Bunker now forecasts VLSFO prices at primary bunkering ports, as tracked by the G20-VLSFO Index, to average around $913/mt in Q2, before softening to $795/mt in Q3 and $701/mt in Q4.

For the full year, the new EIA forecast implies the G20-VLSFO Index to average $765/mt in 2026 and $606/mt in 2027.

This compares to an average price of $691.5/mt seen so far this year.

The G20-HSFO Index is forecast to average at $784/mt in Q2 and $656/mt in 2026 as a whole, compared to a year-to-date average of $559.5/mt.

For the G20-MGO Index, the Q2 average is forecast at $1,346/mt and 2026 at $1,128/mt, compared to the year-to-date average of $1,043/mt.

However, bunker prices are expected to come under pressure in the near term as the ceasefire announcement shifts market sentiments.

Ship & Bunker publishes bunker price forecasts for every port and index it covers, based on the Brent forecasts from the monthly EIA report. The forecasts are published alongside the daily bunker prices for each port.

It should be noted that the forecasts are based on the average price relationship between the fuel concerned and Brent over the previous 12 months. Because of that, and because most fuel grades have moved into a highly abnormal premium to Brent over the past two weeks, any rapid change in the situation in the Middle East will heavily affect their accuracy.

EIA said its outlook is highly sensitive to assumptions around the duration of the Middle East conflict and the extent of any associated disruptions to oil supply.