Shipping to See Onboard CO2 Capture Surge from 2040s: DNV

DNV expects the use of CCS will become more noticeable in the shipping industry from the 2040s onward. Image Credit: DNV

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) capacity is forecast to quadruple by 2030, with shipping expected to drive onboard CO2 capture systems demand from the 2040s, according to DNV’s Energy Transition Outlook: CCS to 2050 report.

CCS currently captures just 41 million mt of CO2 per year, but that figure is projected to rise to 1,300 MtCO₂ annually by 2050.

This would represent 6% of global emissions - far short of the level needed for a net-zero future.
DNV estimates cumulative CCS investment will reach $80 billion by the end of the decade, with growth concentrated in North America and Europe.

While natural gas processing currently dominates CCS applications, shipping is among the hard-to-abate sectors where the technology is expected to scale over time. From 2030, demand will grow in manufacturing, with onboard CCS becoming increasingly evident in shipping from the 2040s.

DNV still sees that the uptake of onboard carbon capture will depend not only on system costs, including fuel penalty, operating expenses, loss of cargo space, and CO2 storage fees, but also on broader economic factors like carbon pricing and fuel costs.

Widespread adoption will also require the development of global infrastructure for CO2 offloading and safe storage.

Its Maritime Forecast to 2050 (2023) report tested that economic case, modelling onboard CCS against carbon-neutral fuels for a 15,000 TEU container ship.

The study found the technology economically viable in a low-cost scenario, with a 15% fuel penalty and a CO2 deposit cost of $40/tonne, and still competitive under higher-cost conditions at a 30% fuel penalty and $80/tonne storage cost.

“CCS is entering a pivotal decade and the scale of ambition and investment must increase dramatically,” Jamie Burrows, Global Segment Lead CCUS, Energy Systems at DNV, said.