Strong Maritime Growth Through 2030 Predicted

The report predicts a strong marine sector in 2030

Seaborne trade will rise from 9 million tonnes per year to between 19 and 24 billion tonnes by 2030, according to a new report by Lloyd's Register, Qinetiq, and Strathclyde University.

Global Marine Trends 2030 anticipates changing dynamics in global trade, including growth in emerging markets and a further increase in China's prominence in the maritime sector.

"The marine world in 2030 will be almost unrecognizable owing to the rise of emerging countries, new consumer classes and resource demand," it says.

The report considers several possible scenarios for the global economy.

"What is striking is that even in the most negative of the scenarios envisaged, maritime growth is strong," Lloyd's Register CEO Richard Sadler said in a press release.

"For anyone looking for a future in an important sector, they have to consider maritime: whether for employment, investment or an understanding that without seaborne trade, offshore energy and naval power, the geopolitics of tomorrow will be highly fragile and quality of life precarious.

"The sea and its industries are vital for our global future."

One driving force will be population growth, with the report estimating global population rising from 6.9 billion in 2010 to more than 8 billion in 2030.

Ninety-six percent of that growth will come from developing countries, and India will surpass China as the most populous country.

Meanwhile, China's economic role will increase, and the nation could own a quarter of the world's merchant fleet by 2030.

When it comes to natural resources, natural gas is poised for particularly fast growth.

"Natural gas will be the fastest growing major fuel supply, with demand rising more than 60 percent by 2030," the report says.

Among other predictions, containerships with a capacity of more than 7,600 twenty foot equivalent units (TEUs) are expected to grow three times faster than smaller shipping vessels, and the tanker fleet is predicted to grow more slowly than other types of ships.

An online version of the report can be viewed here, or download from here.