Oil Extends Gains On Supply Worries, Supported By IEA Forecast

by Ship & Bunker News Team
Thursday March 14, 2024

The shift of concern to market tightness that informed the previous session's crude trading continued  on Thursday, thanks to a revised International Energy Agency outlook forecasting lower supplies.

As a result, Brent rose $1.21 to $85.26 per barrel by 15:57 GMT, and West Texas Intermediate was up $1.41 at $81.13.

The IEA predicted that demand will rise by 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) this year, up 110,000 bpd from last month; and it cut its 2024 supply forecast, now stating that "our balance for the year shifts from a surplus to a slight deficit."

This followed the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) earlier this week in its latest monthly report stating that it expects global oil demand to grow by a "robust" 2.2 million bpd this year and another 1.8 million bpd in 2025.

Meanwhile, Ukraine drone strikes on Russia oil refineries prompted Russia's energy ministry to disclose that it expects a rise in crude exports because of outages (Russia's seaborne fuel exports fell 1.5 percent from the previous month due to the strikes).

Tim Evans, an independent oil market analyst, said, "The market may have been poised for some follow-through buying after Ukrainian drone strikes damaged three Russian oil refineries and U.S. inventories fell last week, but the market got a further lift from Thursday's International Energy Agency monthly Oil Market Report."