Vessels may consider non-compliance as an option (file image/pixabay)
Bunker demand in 2020 will be around 196 million metric tonnes (mt) while non-compliance with the 2020 0.5% sulfur rule would account for an eighth of that figure, according to London-based price reporting agency Petroleum Argus.
Marine gasoil, which many observers believe will be the first fuel choice of ship operators, would make up half of the overall figure. Fity-six million mt of mgo will be in the market while 45 million mt should become available by 2020 based on refinery investment plans, the agency said.
The non-compliance market share number would amount to 25 million mt although, according to Argus economist Alan Hayes, it may be more.
'It's a consenus number,' said Hayes, adding that, in his view, the figure would be higher.
Low sulfur fuel oil would account for a further 25 million mt with demand from ships fitted with ship exhaust abatement units, commonly called scrubbers, adding a further 45 million mt to the overall demand picture.