Smarter FuelEU Compliance Could Yield €250 Million for Shipping Sector

New analysis from OceanScore reveals that savvy compliance with FuelEU Maritime rules could create financial benefits for shipping. Image Credit: OceanScore

With the FuelEU Maritime regulation in place, a new analysis by maritime analytics firm OceanScore suggests the industry could turn regulatory pressure into a potential €250 million upside.

"FuelEU isn't just another penalty," Albrecht Grell, Managing Director at OceanScore, said in an emailed statement on Thursday.

"It's structured in a way that can push money back into parts of the industry — but only if you understand where and how that happens."

The key lies in balancing GHG intensity across the fleet. While vessels exceeding the compliance threshold face a 2.1 million mt CO2e deficit, more efficient ships — especially LNG and LPG carriers — generate a 1.3 million mt surplus, OceanScore noted.

The remaining gap of 0.8 million mt is expected to be filled using biofuel blends derived from UCOME.

"At today's prices, factoring in the ETS phase-in rate of 70% and current exchange rates, covering this compliance gap via biofuels is expected to cost the industry around €200 million, or €230 per MT of CO₂e," OceanScore said.

OceanScore sees this as relatively modest on an industry standard.

But the real opportunity lies on the revenue side.

OceanScore found that many operators, particularly in the container, ferry, and cruise sectors, are already applying emissions surcharges linked to FuelEU penalties. Even conservative estimates show surcharges could generate €450 million in additional revenue.

"Windfalls like this don't last forever," said Grell. "But in the short term, there's clearly value on the table."

"Ship managers are in a uniquely exposed position," Grell said.

"They carry the responsibility for compliance but typically operate on tight margins. The additional cost, for tools, processes, and reporting systems could quickly reach €3,000–4,000 per vessel annually."