Scrubber tower. Image Credit: Ship & Bunker
Last year's mega-rush of scrubber orders may be over, but IHSMarkit are among those who see the uptake of scrubbers continuing, which in turn will support the ongoing use of HSFO in the post-2020 market.
"We believe there will be an uptake in scrubbers longer term," Debnil Chowdhury, Head of North American Refining, IHSMarkit, told delegates last week at the IBIA Caribbean Bunker Conference (ICBC).
"When you look at the scrubber uptake we do believe HSFO demand will slowly come back but never reach the levels they were at prior to [IMO2020]."
While it is unclear exactly how many scrubber equipped vessels there will be come 2020, IHSMarkit puts its estimates close to those of other mainstream analysis at 2,000 to 2,200 come January 1, 2020, and 2,600-2,800 by year end.
Even less certain among market watchers is how this translates into ongoing HSFO demand.
While some believe a third or more of current HSFO demand could be retained in 2020, IHSMarkit sees scrubbed HSFO at 5% of demand, non-compliance at 15%, VLSFOs at 30% of total bunker demand, and gasoil making up the remaining 50%.