Efficacy of China's ECAs Called into Question

Are China's ECA's too narrow? File Image / Pixabay

The efficacy of China's emissions control areas (ECAs) has be called into question by the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT).

Currently an at-berth regulation, from October 1, 2018 for Shanghai and Zhejiang, and from January 1, 2019 for the PRD, YRD, and Bohai Bay regions, vessels must burn bunkers with a maximum sulfur content of 0.50% when operating in the zones that are effectively 12 nautical miles (nm) off the Chinese coastline.

However, ICCT says the ECAs cover too narrow of a band, and ships could re-route to avoid having to burn the more expensive fuel.

"We found that the amount of emissions that would be controlled by an ECA would be overestimated if rerouting behavior is not considered," ICCT said in its recent Whitepaper, "Delineating a Chinese Emission Control Area - The Potential Impact of Ship Rerouting on Emissions."

Emissions from ships that re-route outside of the 12 nm zone "would likely be repositioned right outside the ECA boundary, as seen along the Californian coast in 2014, rather than being reduced.

"We found that an ECA needs to be at least 100 nm from the coast to be most effective."

When considering the size of an ECA, ICCT notes the need to balance this with the need to make the area of an easily enforceable size, and China's choice of 12 nm could make it easier for the government to enforce.

While the study is certainly a useful exercise for future ECA regulations, any shortcomings for China chould be relatively short lived.

A global 0.50% sulfur cap on marine fuel comes into force from January 1, 2020.