Number of Ships to be Equipped with Scrubbers Hits 4,000: DNV GL

AIDA scrubber installation. Image Credit: Carnival

The HSFO / VLSFO spread may have narrowed significantly following the recent collapse in oil prices, but orders for SOx scrubbers have continued to roll in.

The total number of ships with the systems - more formally known as exhaust gas cleaning systems (EGCS) - either equipped or on order is around 4,000 as of March 2020, according to the latest analysis from DNV GL.

While new orders for the technology understandably slowed as the industry approached 2020, the latest figure still represents an increase on the 3,881 vessels assessed by DNV GL earlier in the year.

If nothing else the figure represents a win for the analysts; 4,000 was the figure Exhaust Gas Cleaning Systems Association (EGCSA) predicted last June would be installed as of Jan 1, while back in 2016 CE Delft's official Fuel Availability Report used to inform IMO on when the IMO 2020 global 0.50% sulfur cap should come into force predicted in 2020 some 3,800 vessels would be operating with scrubbers.

However, as DNV GL bases its total on direct reports of confirmed orders from the scrubber manufacturers, some suspect the actual number of scrubber equipped vessels is higher, not least because it is impossible to factor in all units sold to private companies particularly by new players in the space.

However much higher the actual total is, not everyone sees the lower-than-anticipated HSFO / VLSFO spread as being a barrier to further orders.

Indeed, Hong Kong-based shipping company OOCL this month was among those considering orders for new units.

"[S]ome stakeholders are anticipating an accelerated uptake of scrubbers again as the payback for larger ships in particular should still be attractive," DNV GL says.

"It remains to be seen, however, if scrubbers will prove to be the compliance option of choice for more ship owners than today, and how future regulation will impact the scrubber market."