MARKET SURVEY: 2023 Q3 Global Bunker Hub Demand Slipped 1.1% on Year

    •  1.1% average decline in Q3 2023 vs Q3 2022
    •  Q3 volumes see 1.5% fall from Q2
    •  Rising demand in Singapore offset by declines elsewhere
    •  Read the full report here: shipandbunker.com/bi/bunker-volumes

Demand at key marine fuel hubs slipped on both a yearly and sequential quarterly basis in the third quarter of 2023, according to the latest market survey of bunker sales volumes in 17 leading global locations.

As in previous quarters, Ship & Bunker and consultancy 2050 Marine Energy surveyed bunker market participants around the world alongside official data where available and found an average fall of 1.1% in volumes in the third quarter from the same period of 2022. The year-on-year decline compares with a 4.9% year-on-year advance in the second quarter. Q3 volumes sequentially were 1.5% lower than in Q2.

The survey covers about 60% of the global demand total shown by official IMO data.

2050 Marine Energy's Adrian Tolson pointed to an uncertain future for demand in the Americas with low water levels in the Panama Canal cutting transit capacity through the key waterway.

"It's the calm before the storm for Americas demand; no-one is quite sure what will happen to bunker sales due to Panama," Tolson told Ship & Bunker.

"This will be one of the big stories in Q4 and Q1 -- expect LA up, the Gulf Coast flat and New York down."

Weak Container Market is Driving Demand Lower

Weakness in the container market was the biggest factor affecting global demand in the third quarter.

After abnormal strength between 2020 and 2022, this market has now been weakening considerably, to the detriment of hubs like ARA, LA and New York that rely on this segment most heavily.

The container segment has also been among the most enthusiastic in recent years in installing fuel-efficiency technologies to its ships to ward off future emissions-related costs, driving a long-term secular trend of declining demand for conventional bunkers.

Mediterranean Weakness

Emissions regulations have brought about a significantly weakened market in the Mediterranean, according to Giampaolo Gargiulo, marine sales director at Alpha Trading.

"Recent embargoes and restrictions have created an environment where prices in the region are becoming less competitive compared to other zones," Gargiulo told Ship & Bunker.

"This shift has resulted in noticeable changes in product withdrawals, as businesses seek more cost-effective alternatives.

"The introduction of new regulations, including the Emission Trading System (ETS) and the Carbon Intensity Indicator (CII) classification, presents additional challenges.

"These regulations may lead ship owners to reconsider their routes, adapting to the evolving regulatory landscape and potentially opting for more competitive alternatives.

"Simultaneously, there is a growing possibility that certain ports in the Mediterranean could play a pivotal role in the delivery of alternative fuels.

"As the maritime industry adjusts to meet environmental standards, the demand for cleaner energy sources continues to rise.

"It is essential to recognize that the situation is dynamic and subject to change due to various independent variables."

Panama, Suez Disruptions Point to Uncertain Outlook Ahead

The combination of reduced capacity in the Panama Canal and ships avoiding Suez point to significant disruption for the global bunker market at the start of 2024.

The container industry alone avoiding Suez and taking longer voyages around Africa could boost global bunker demand by as much as 2%, according to a Ship & Bunker analysis, and tankers and dry bulk following the lead could double that figure.

"The two main global shipping canals operating -- for different reasons -- at vastly reduced capacity will change bunkering patterns, so Q1 impacts should be quite significant," Adrian Tolson told Ship & Bunker.

"The vessels coming around the Cape may stop in Las Palmas, but could skip the Strait of Gibraltar, so perhaps it will be better for Singapore, ARA, and the Canaries, and likely bad for Suez, the Red Sea, the Eastern and Western Mediterranean."

Methodology

As with the previous surveys the areas covered by the survey are Singapore, the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) hub, Fujairah, the US Gulf, South Korea, Russia, the Gibraltar Strait, Hong Kong, Panama, Zhoushan, Japan, New York, West Africa, South Africa, the Canary Islands, Los Angeles/Long Beach and Turkey. Data is sourced from a combination of market participants and official records.

The full breakdown of the survey results including sales volumes in each bunkering region for Q3 2023 and 2022 is available by clicking here.