Americas News
US Pushback Could Deter Member States from Backing IMO Net-Zero Framework: ING
The threat of US retaliation could cast a shadow over the IMO's proposed Net-Zero Framework, potentially swaying other IMO members away from supporting it, ING has warned.
The US government announced on Tuesday that it is rejecting the IMO's proposal, stating it harms American interests.
It also warned that it would not hesitate to take retaliatory action if the proposal is approved.
"The US statement to reject the Net-Zero Framework that has been negotiated at MEPC 83 likely complicates the final adoption scheduled in October," Rico Luman, Senior Economist, Transport & Logistics at ING, said in an email statement on Wednesday.
Framework Faces Crucial October Vote
The IMO framework is set for adoption in October, subject to a vote at an extraordinary meeting of the Marine Environment Protection Committee, with the draft regulation agreed upon, including a global fuel standard and global economic measure.
The framework will need a two-thirds majority of contracting parties to Marpol Annex VI to vote in favour. The IMO has 176 member countries, including the US.
Luman believes that the threshold is still within reach, but warns US opposition could weaken the IMO's authority and undermine the plan's rollout.
"Obviously, the system, when enforced in 2027, will apply globally and also applies to journeys to and from the US, Luman said.
"If the US doesn't accept the effectuation, this will complicate the whole system.
"This could also make other countries doubt, because they fear the consequences, as the US could retaliate.
"This puts the final adoption in danger."
Risk to Shipping Decarbonisation Targets if Delayed
Luman believes that if the implementation is disrupted, it could jeopardise shipping's decarbonization targets.
"There may be a different – more climate-friendly - administration in the US in 2028, when the first reporting kicks in, but delay of the climate strategy will only make it even more difficult to achieve the decarbonisation targets in 2040 and 2050.
"There's not much time left as implementation usually takes years of preparation (also to enable companies to prepare themselves) and CO2 emission failed to get on a downward track over the last years.
"Also, several container liners and large shippers have advocated to put a price on carbon emissions as well to flatten the level playing field with low carbon fuels," Luman concluded.
